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Policy Forum Online 06-97A: November 15th, 2006
Report on North Korean Nuclear Program
Article by Siegfried S. Hecker

CONTENTS

I. Introduction
II. Article by Siegfried S. Hecker
III. Citations
IV. Nautilus invites your responses
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I. Introduction

Siegfried S. Hecker, researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, writes, "My general impression is that the Oct. 9, 2006 nuclear test, which followed DPRK's Feb.10, 2005 announcement of having manufactured nuclear weapons, will make it much more difficult to convince the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons. The prevalent view we found in China, with which I concur, is that the United States must demonstrably address DPRK's security before there is any hope of denuclearization."

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on contentious topics in order to identify common ground.

II. Article by Siegfried S. Hecker
- Report on North Korean Nuclear Program

On Oct. 31 to Nov. 4, 2006, a delegation led by Prof. John W. Lewis, Stanford University, accompanied by Siegfried S. Hecker and Robert L. Carlin of Stanford University, and Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard of the Korean Economic Institute visited Pyongyang, Democratic People¡¯s Republic of Korea (DPRK). This report summarizes the findings regarding the DPRK nuclear program based on our discussions with officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Korean People¡¯s Army, the Supreme People¡¯s Assembly, and the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. Three members of our delegation made similar visits to the DPRK in January 2004 and August 2005. Before and after the current trip to the DPRK, Lewis and Hecker also had extensive discussions about the DPRK nuclear program with Chinese officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the military, the Central Party School, the China Reform Forum, the China National Nuclear Corporation, and the Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics.

Summary Observations:

This trip provided a status report of the DPRK nuclear program and yielded new, valuable insights related to the nuclear test, the plutonium production capacity, and the status of the nuclear weapons program.
Nuclear test: We were not able to meet with technical specialists responsible for the nuclear test or its design. DPRK political and military officials told us the test was fully successful and achieved its goal. We can still only speculate whether the DPRK nuclear device was designed to produce a relatively low yield with a large, simple Nagasaki-like device or if it was a sophisticated, missile-capable design with smaller dimensions. Although we cannot rule out the more sophisticated design, the more likely option is one proposed by Chinese nuclear specialists; that is, the DPRK tested a simple device of relatively low yield to make absolutely certain that they could contain the nuclear explosion in their underground test tunnel. The Chinese nuclear specialists concluded, ¡°If the DPRK aimed for 4 kilotons and got 1 kiloton, that is not bad for a first test. We call it successful, but not perfect.¡±

Plutonium production:

Yongbyon nuclear center Director Ri Hong Sop appeared confident and satisfied with the operations of the 5 MWe reactor (which is accumulating approximately one bomb¡¯s worth of plutonium per year), and he is no hurry to unload the fuel rods currently in the reactor. However, it appears that technical difficulties associated with fuel cladding integrity and refurbishment of the fuel fabrication facility may impact the political decision as to when to unload the reactor and process more plutonium. For technical reasons, the DPRK will be able to produce at most one bomb¡¯s worth of plutonium per year for the next few years. In addition, technical difficulties are slowing down the resumption of full-scale construction of the 50 MWe reactor, which would increase plutonium production ten-fold. Although a political decision on a full construction restart apparently has not yet been made, these difficulties will put the completion of the reactor and a significant scale-up of plutonium production at least several years into the future. On the other hand, the Yongbyon nuclear center appears to have fully mastered plutonium metal production and casting, including having prepared the plutonium for the DPRK nuclear test. My best estimate is that before the test, the DPRK had separated between 40 and 50 kg of plutonium, sufficient for roughly six to eight bombs. They most likely used approximately 6 kg for their first test.

Nuclear weapons: We know very little about the DPRK nuclear stockpile and the nation¡¯s nuclear strategy. DPRK officials stated the role of their nuclear weapons is to deter the United States and defend the sovereignty of their state. The officials we met appeared to have little appreciation for the new challenges they faced for nuclear weapons safety and security that results from the possession of nuclear weapons. They stated that DPRK¡¯s commitment to denuclearize remains unchanged in spite of their nuclear test, but it will require the United States to stop threatening the DPRK state. They also pledged not to transfer nuclear weapons to other states or terrorists. Yet, my general impression is that the hurdles to convincing the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons have increased substantially with its Feb.10, 2005 announcement of having manufactured nuclear weapons and its Oct. 9, 2006 nuclear test. It is essential for the United States to demonstrably address DPRK¡¯s security before there is any hope of denuclearization.

Nuclear test:

On Oct. 9, 2006, the DPRK conducted a nuclear test in the northeastern part of the DPRK. On Oct. 16, the U.S. Office of Nuclear Intelligence issued the statement: ¡°Analysis of air samples collected Oct. 11, 2006 detected radioactive debris which confirms that North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion in the vicinity of P¡¯unggye on Oct. 9, 2006. The explosion yield was less than 1 kiloton.¡± Reports of seismic signals from around the world ranged from a magnitude of 3.5 to 4.2 on the Richter scale. There is uncertainty in translating these measurements to explosion yield because of lack of knowledge of the exact geology at the test site. Most of the yield estimates reported to date range from 0.2 to 1.0 kiloton.(1),(2) Subsequent press reports suggested that there was evidence that the test was of a plutonium bomb.(3) However, such information would be difficult to obtain and has never been officially confirmed.

The director of the Yongbyon nuclear center did not discuss the test results beyond the fact that his facility produced the plutonium metal for the test device. He told us that plutonium metal was used and it was of the type that they allowed me to hold (in a sealed glass jar) during my January 2004 visit to Yongbyon.(4),(5),(6) He indicated that his responsibilities end with plutonium metal production. The technical specialists associated with nuclear weapons design and testing were not made available for discussion during our visit. So, our questions regarding technical details of the test ? such as the type of device, the yield, test diagnostics, and post-explosion diagnostics ? remained unanswered.

The diplomatic officials and military officials were not reluctant to discuss the nuclear test. They declared the nuclear test ¡°powerful and fully successful.¡± Their comments included ¡°the test has given us hope for the future; we are confident and full of pride.¡± When we inquired about press reports that the nuclear test may have been a failure or only partially successful, they indicated that they are aware of the criticism, but ¡°the criticism does not conform to reality.¡± They reiterated, ¡°The test was successful. We don¡¯t care what others say. We are confident the test achieved our goals.¡± All of our DPRK hosts projected an attitude of pride and confidence during this visit.

When asked about why the DPRK decided to test and why now, they responded that the test was ¡°a result of U.S. political pressure. The test is an active self-defense measure.¡± They also indicated that the nuclear test was legal because the United States withdrew from the Agreed Framework and the DPRK withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). ¡°Without this pressure there would have been no test.¡± They also indicated that it is quite natural for a nuclear weapons state to test. The United States should not have been surprised. None of the officials we met gave us the impression that they are planning a second nuclear test. We told our hosts that they are the first country to announce its first nuclear test. Moreover, the apparent DPRK explosion yield is much lower than those of the first tests conducted by other countries. Why did they announce their test? The military official answered, ¡°We could either not announce, or announce and make certain that the test is carried out safe and secure. Which is more beneficial and reasonable?¡± To summarize the DPRK nuclear testing discussions, their officials declared it a successful test of a plutonium nuclear device.

We were told that the DPRK gave both the Chinese and Russian embassies two hours advance notice of the test. We received no definitive response to our question of whether or not this notice included an estimate of the expected explosion yield of the test. We were subsequently told in China by officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other organizations that China was given the following advance notice about the test: time, location, and an estimated explosion yield of approximately 4 kilotons.

Based on independent seismic measurements around the world, the test had an explosion yield between 0.2 and 1 kiloton. It was confirmed to be a nuclear test based on radioactive air sampling results reported by the United States. A plutonium device is consistent with the DPRK plutonium production program. That is all we know for certain at this time. The explosion yields of the first nuclear test conducted by the seven declared nuclear weapons states range from approximately 10 to 60 kilotons. The Nagasaki bomb yielded approximately 21 kilotons. So, by comparison, the DPRK explosion yield was low.

We can only speculate whether the DPRK nuclear device was designed to produce a relatively low yield with a large, simple device along the lines of a Nagasaki design or if it was a sophisticated design with smaller dimensions and mass so as to fit onto a Nodong medium range missile. A test of a sophisticated device could readily explain the low yield since it is very difficult to get all technical parameters correct the first time. Opting for testing a sophisticated device would represent a big step for a first test. I should add that given the low yield results and without further tests, it is highly unlikely that they have gained sufficient confidence to field such a device on a missile. Although we cannot rule out their willingness to take such a step, I find it more likely that they opted for the more conservative approach of a simple design. Our discussions with Chinese nuclear specialists provided some interesting insight. First, they told us that the Chinese seismic stations close to the DPRK test location recorded a magnitude of 4.1 to 4.2, from which they estimate an explosion yield close to 1 kiloton. They believe that the DPRK opted for a simple design at 4 kilotons to make absolutely certain that they contain the nuclear explosion in their underground test tunnel without massive radioactive leakage.(7) We were told, ¡°If the DPRK aimed for 4 kilotons and got 1 kiloton, that is not bad for a first test. We call it successful, but not perfect.¡± This appeared to be a technical judgment, not one related to the utility of a nuclear weapon of similar design. In my opinion, that is a reasonable assessment based on the facts we have at this time. The availability of plutonium may also affect test decisions in the DPRK. As noted below, the DPRK¡¯s weapons-usable plutonium inventory is limited to 40 to 50 kg. Therefore, they will keep the number of tests to a minimum. However, for the first test, I do not believe the amount of available plutonium influenced the decision to test a simple vs. a sophisticated design.

Plutonium production:

The director of the Yongbyon nuclear center, Dr. Ri Hong Sop, met us in Pyongyang to present a status update of Yongbyon nuclear activities. During our January 2004 visit to Yongbyon, he took us to the 5 MWe reactor, the spent-fuel storage pool, and the plutonium reprocessing facility (called the Radiochemical Laboratory). We also drove by the construction site for the 50 MWe reactor and discussed its status. In August 2005, the director provided us a status report on all of these facilities in a meeting in Pyongyang.

The 5 MWe reactor (8): Director Ri informed us that the reactor was operating but with some restrictions. Although the reactor is operating at its full 25 MWt (thermal power), the output temperature has been reduced to 300¡ÆC from 350¡ÆC. He indicated that the lower temperature produces higher weapons-quality plutonium, but it reduces the efficiency of the electrical power output. However, the principal reason for lowering the temperature was to avoid fuel cladding failures.(9) ¡°The reactor operators decide the operating temperature based on what is best for the safety of the fuel rods. Replacing fuel rods is time consuming, so running at a lower temperature is more advantageous.¡±

We asked if they had many on-off cycles in reactor operations in the current campaign.(10) He claimed not. They have removed damaged fuel rods a couple of times. They inspect the fuel rods carefully before loading, and they examine them periodically while in the reactor. This is the only time they have lowered the power. He stated, ¡°There have been no big fluctuations in power over the past year. We only did this during planned inspections.¡± He said that in 2005 they were concerned about the fuel rods, but that reprocessing campaign demonstrated that the fuel rods and cladding were generally in good shape. The fuel rods for the third campaign were also all fabricated before the 1994 shutdown prompted by the Agreed Framework. He was not particularly concerned about the current load of fuel rods because these were inspected before loading. Only a small number of rods had corroded. They found replacements for these rods. His overall assessment of reactor operations was that he is happy with reactor operations during the past year. They had to lower the temperature and do some minor maintenance and fuel rod replacements.

We asked about plans to unload the reactor, which has been operating with the current fuel load since June 2005. Director Ri said that from a technical standpoint they would do so sometime next year. However, there are other factors that he does not decide. ¡°The political situation may change. So, sometimes we unload the reactor earlier even though it is less favorable for us technically.¡± When asked about the availability of another reactor core load of fuel rods, he said that at this point they still have a number of fuel rods from the pre-1994 inventory that was inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). There were insufficient fuel rods for a full reactor core load of 8000 fuel rods.

Fuel fabrication facility: We inquired about the status of the fuel fabrication facility.(11) He stated, ¡°We are finalizing facility preparations now.¡± He indicated that although parts of the original line had collapsed, they were in the final stages of refurbishment now. They expect to begin new fuel fabrication in 2007. It will take them approximately one year to fabricate an entire reactor core of fresh fuel rods. Since they still have spare fuel rods from the previous inventory, they can replace fuel rods as necessary. So, when they shut down the reactor, they plan to have a fresh charge ready to go. If it is decided to shut down the reactor earlier, they will consider doing a partial unloading, replacing the rods in the center of the reactor core first. They would use the remaining spare rods and whatever fresh rods they had fabricated by then. In response to our question of whether or not they had all the materials they needed for the refurbishment, including stainless steel, indigenously, he replied, ¡°Yes we do.¡±

Reprocessing facility and plutonium metal production:(12) Director Ri told us that when they conducted the second reprocessing campaign in 2005, they decided to postpone the waste treatment activity to 2006. That is what they are doing now at Yongbyon, and because of the resulting high radiation levels during this operation, they do not allow outsiders to visit. He confirmed that the 30 percent improvement in throughput in plutonium reprocessing that he mentioned in August 2005 was obtained by replacing some of the mixer-settlers with pulsed columns. He indicated that they made this change only for the uranium ? plutonium co-extraction line, not for the entire line because of the complexity of changing an operating line. If they could do it all over again, they would use pulsed columns instead of mixer-settlers in the entire line. When we expressed surprise they were able to make this change at all noting how difficult it is to do in our facilities, he said, ¡°Well we did it. Maybe it shows our technicians are more advanced than yours.¡± Our rejoinder was that, nevertheless, it is a big deal to make these kinds of changes in an operating facility.(13) To this he answered, ¡°Yes, but because of the nuclear threat (meaning the threat from the United States), we had to do this in spite of the risk.¡± We asked again if they had all the necessary equipment indigenously, and the reply was yes. He said they can produce corrosion-resistant steels in the DPRK and all the chemicals are produced domestically, including the tributyl phosphate used in the separations process.

Director Ri also stated with pride that they have mastered the entire plutonium production cycle. They initially designed the Radiochemical Laboratory for a commercial nuclear fuel cycle; that is, ¡°We make plutonium oxalate and plutonium oxide. However, following the U.S. cutoff of heavy fuel oil in Nov. 2002, we decided to resume reactor operation and changed the design of the Radiochemical Laboratory to go from plutonium oxalate, to plutonium oxide, to plutonium tetrafluoride, to plutonium metal, which is then electrorefined, alloyed and cast.¡± The electrorefining step is to purify the plutonium metal. He stated: ¡°Since we completed the (entire) process and in Feb. 2005, we announced that we have produced nuclear weapons.¡±

We inquired about the nature of the plutonium metal and shape used for the nuclear test and if it was manufactured at Yongbyon. Director Ri indicated that the metal is of the nature I touched in Jan. 2004. He can¡¯t tell me anything about the shape. They cast the gross plutonium shapes at Yongbyon, the device is fabricated elsewhere beyond his jurisdiction. He also indicated that most of their plutonium research is focused on ensuring a sound cast product. They do extensive examination of the purity, density and uniformity of the plutonium castings. They do little plutonium properties research because most properties of plutonium are well known.

50 MWe and 200 MWe reactors.(14) In Jan. 2004, we drove by the 50 MWe reactor in Yongbyon. The outside of the reactor building looked in bad repair. Apparently, nothing had been done to the site during the Agreed Framework freeze. In August 2005, Director Ri told us that they had completed a design study that concluded that construction of the reactor could continue on its original site with much of its original equipment. He said that the core of the reactor and other components were not at the Yongbyon site. He said their workers are ready to go back to reactor construction, although he did not give us an expected completion date.

During this visit, we were told that virtually nothing had been done at the 50 MWe reactor site and that they have run into some difficulties. Director Ri stated, ¡°We are now in a partial preparation, not in full swing.¡± The current effort is directed at ¡°recovering the original state of the equipment; for example, removing rust from the steel.¡± He said, ¡°The main problem is the preparation by other industries, recovery in other factories, not on site at Yongbyon. This is not a simple job, nor a small job. The problem is in outside industrial facilities.¡± Responding to our question about having all materials for this construction job available within the DPRK, he answered, ¡°It is difficult to import, so we must do everything ourselves. It will take longer.¡± When asked about the timing of resuming full operations, he said, ¡°I have sent a schedule to the higher level, but have not yet received instructions. I expect to get instructions soon.¡±

The 200 MWe construction site is at Taechon, about 20 km from Yongbyon. Nothing has been done at the site since the Agreed Framework freeze was instituted in 1994. Director Ri told us last year that they are still studying what to do with the reactor. He said it is most likely less expensive to start over than to continue on the current site. During this visit, he told us that there is nothing new on this reactor. He said: ¡°We will sequence the decision. First, we will do the 50 MWe reactor, then we¡¯ll address the 200 MWe reactor.¡±

In summary of plutonium production, the status of the 5 MWe reactor operations, DPRK plans to unload the current reactor core of fuel rods and reprocess them, and future plans for reloading are difficult to assess. Some of the key decisions are clearly high-level political decisions. And, although the Yongbyon leadership appears confident, it appears that technical difficulties associated with fuel cladding integrity and refurbishment of the fuel fabrication facility may impact the political decision. For technical reasons, the DPRK will be able to produce at most one bomb¡¯s worth of plutonium per year for the next few years. It also appears that technical difficulties are slowing down the resumption of full-scale construction of the 50 MWe reactor. Although, a political decision on a full restart apparently has not yet been made, these difficulties will put the completion of the reactor and a significant scale-up of plutonium production at least several years into the future. On the other hand, the Yongbyon nuclear center appears to have fully mastered plutonium metal production and casting, including having prepared the plutonium for the DPRK nuclear test.

Uranium enrichment

We held no discussions during this visit related to potential DPRK enrichment efforts. During our previous visits, the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials denied having any part of an enrichment program. We concluded, however, that in light of the suspected DPRK procurement activities in the 1990s, confessions of A.Q. Khan and recent statements by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, it is very likely that the DPRK has at least a research-scale uranium enrichment effort. We should note that four years after U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly first accused the DPRK of having a covert enrichment program, we have no additional information about these activities.

Nuclear weapons

We know even less about DPRK¡¯s nuclear weapons than about their nuclear test. DPRK officials told us that they have demonstrated their deterrent. They emphasized, ¡°DPRK needs the deterrent; otherwise it can¡¯t defend its sovereignty.¡± We probed their view of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and what they considered their new responsibility now that they have demonstrated a nuclear capability. Specifically, we asked what they are doing to ensure nuclear weapons safety and security. We expressed concern that if they have their weapons ready to use in order to deter, they may be particularly vulnerable to safety and security problems. It would be catastrophic for everyone if one of their weapons detonated accidentally on their own soil. They reiterated that, ¡°The DPRK will not use nuclear weapons first, nor give them to terrorists like al Qaeda. We make these expensive weapons to defend our right to survive.¡± However, in discussions during all three of our visits, we found little appreciation for the serious risks entailed by a weaponized nuclear deterrent and found little thought given to nuclear strategy.

What about denuclearization in light of what they called their successful nuclear test? We were told, ¡°Our commitment to denuclearization and the Sept. 19, 2005 agreement remains unchanged, but we will make tougher demands that the United States remain faithful to its own (Sept. 19, 2005) commitments.¡± The military official agreed, ¡°If the DPRK feels that it could trust the United States, then there is no need even for a single nuclear weapon and we will dismantle them.¡± The Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials also offered some hope by stating, ¡°To achieve the Sept. 19 agreement, we must have both short-term and long-term objectives in the talk. We must suspend our nuclear activities. Without this, the nuclear weapons will increase. What others should do during the period between suspension and dismantlement is to build trust and confidence. The DPRK should stop production, testing, and transferring weapons. This should be done in a verifiable way. The United States should take actions in a verifiable way also.¡±

Yet, my general impression is that the Oct. 9, 2006 nuclear test, which followed DPRK¡¯s Feb.10, 2005 announcement of having manufactured nuclear weapons, will make it much more difficult to convince the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons. The officials with whom we met presented the united front of pride and confidence instilled by what they called a ¡°fully successful¡± nuclear test. It is also important to note that historically South Africa is the only nation to voluntarily give up nuclear weapons that it produced itself. However, the political and security circumstances were very different. The prevalent view we found in China, with which I concur, is that the United States must demonstrably address DPRK¡¯s security before there is any hope of denuclearization.

Summary estimate of DPRK nuclear weapons program:

Plutonium inventories< 1994 (IRT reactor & 5 MWe reactor)~ 8.4 kg (15),(16) (1+ weapons worth)
2003 (5 MWe reactor) ~ 25 kg (4-6 weapons worth)
2005 (5 MWe reactor) ~10-14 kg (~ 2 weapons worth)
As of Nov. 2006 ~4-8 kg in reactor now (not separated)
As of Nov. 2006, DPRK is highly likely to have 40 to 50 kg of separate plutonium (sufficient for six to eight nuclear weapons).

Plutonium production capacity

5 MWe reactor capacity ~ 6 kg/yr (1 weapon worth/yr)
Future 50 MWe reactor ~ 60 kg/yr (~ 10 weapons worth/yr)
(Status: Recovery of components in progress. No visible construction on site. Decision on full restart expected soon from high level. Technical issues slowing progress)
Future of 200 MWe reactor ~ 200 kg/yr
(Status: Decision postponed. Most likely costs more to continue than to start over)

Nuclear weapons

We still know very little. After 2004 visit, we concluded that given demonstrated technical capabilities, we must assume DPRK has produced at least a few simple, primitive nuclear devices.
No information on whether or not devices are missile capable.
U.S. report on Oct. 9, 2006 test: It was a nuclear test. DPRK confirmed it was a plutonium device. The explosion yield was estimated at ~ 4kt, but resulted in a yield < 1 kiloton.

DPRK Nov. 2006 statement: It was fully successful. No more tests needed.
China analysis: DPRK predicted 4 kt, achieved 1kt: ¡°Successful, but not perfect.¡±
Even with test, still a long way to go to get missile-capable device.

Uranium enrichment

We know even less. Continued denial by Ministry of Foreign Affairs against evidence that they have had some level of effort in this area.
We acknowledge with thanks support for this visit from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Ploughshares Fund, Dr. Marjorie Kiewit, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Korea Economic Institute of America, and Stanford University¡¯s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

III. Citations

(1) R.L. Garwin and F.N. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, Vol. 36, No. 9. November 2006.
(2) Jungmin Kang and Peter Hayes, ¡°Technical Analysis of the DPRK Nuclear Test,¡± Nautilus Institute Policy Forum Online 06-89A: Oct. 20th, 2006. http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0689HayesKang.html
(3) Thom Shanker and David Sanger, ¡°North Korean Fuel Identified as Plutonium,¡± The New York Times, October 17, 2006.
(4) Siegfried S. Hecker, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hearing on, ¡°Visit to the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center in North Korea,¡± Jan. 21, 2004.
(5) Siegfried S. Hecker, ¡°The Nuclear Crisis in North Korea,¡± The Bridge, National Academy of Engineering, 17-23, Summer 2004.
(6) During the Jan. 2004 visit, Yongbyon nuclear center officials showed me a thin-walled conical shaped piece of plutonium that they said was a scrap piece cut off from one of their castings. They told me that the piece weighed 200 grams, had a density between 15 and 16 grams per cubic centimeter, and was alloyed. Alloying plutonium with a few atomic percent gallium or aluminum is a metallurgical technique used to make it easier to produce sound plutonium castings because in the unalloyed state plutonium is notoriously difficult to manufacture. This technique was used in the United States during the Manhattan Project to manufacture the plutonium components for the Trinity test and the Nagasaki bomb.
(7) Containing a 20-kiloton explosion in a horizontal tunnel with sufficient depth and overburden is technically quite feasible. Although there is ample information in the open literature on how to accomplish this, it is not clear how confident the DPRK technical specialists were given the disastrous political consequences of a significant radiation leakage. It is also known that sealing an underground explosion cavity completely is actually easier to do with a 20-kiloton explosion than an explosion of one to four kilotons. However, the DPRK technical specialists may have been mostly concerned with a major breach of the tunnel and, therefore, opted to be conservative.
(8) The 5 MWe reactor is an indigenously built graphite-moderated, gas-cooled reactor that was shut down during the Agreed Framework freeze (with only routine maintenance allowed) and restarted in February 2003 (see Note 3 for more detail). Its plutonium production capacity is approximately 6 kg (or roughly one weapon worth) per year.
(9) The uranium-aluminum alloy fuel is clad with a magnesium alloy that can degrade at elevated temperature. This reactor experienced considerable fuel cladding problems during the early operating experience before the 1994 shutdown.
(10) We refer to three reactor campaigns. The first resulted in the 8000 spent fuel rods that were stored in the spent fuel pool during the Agreed Framework freeze from 1994 to 2003. The second campaign refers to the fuel rods loaded in 2003 when the reactor was restarted, and according to the director¡¯s claims in August 2005, were reprocessed in 2005. The third campaign refers to the fuel rods loaded in June 2005. These fuel rods are still in the reactor as of Nov. 3, 2006.
(11) In August 2005, Director Ri told us that parts of the fuel fabrication facility had corroded so badly that they collapsed during the Agreed Framework freeze. However, they were in the process of refurbishing the facility and expected to fabricate new fuel rods in 2006.
(12) In August 2005, Director Ri told us that they were close to finishing the reprocessing of all the fuel rods from the second campaign, which was in the reactor from Feb. 2003 through March 2005. He also indicated that they had made some equipment improvements that allowed them to increase the throughput by 30 percent.
(13) One of the greatest difficulties is having to work inside a heavily shielded, highly radioactive environment in which normal operations are done remotely with manipulators.
(14) These reactors are described in References 3 and 4. In brief, the 50 MWe reactor was claimed to be within a year of completion and the 200 MWe reactor within a few years of completion when the Agreed Framework was adopted in 1994. The plutonium production potential of the 50 MWe reactor is roughly 60 kg of plutonium per year (roughly ten times that of the 5 MWe reactor). The production potential of the 200 MWe reactor is roughly forty times that of the 5 MWe reactor.
(15) David Albright, Kevin O¡¯Neill, editors. ¡°Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle,¡± ISIS Reports, The Institute for Science and International Security, Washington, D.C., 2000.
(16) A recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security reports somewhat larger ranges of potential plutonium inventories. David Albright and Paul Brennan, ¡°The North Korean Plutonium Stock Mid-2006,¡± http://www.isis-online.org/publications/dprk/dprkplutonium.pdf

IV. Nautilus Invites Your Responses

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bscott@nautilus.org. Responses will be considered for redistribution to the network only if they include the author's name, affiliation, and explicit consent.
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Juche 9 (2004) Joint New Year Editorial Published

Pyongyang, January 1 (KCNA) -- The January 1st issue of the leading newspapers of the DPRK Rodong Sinmun, Josoninmingun and Chongnyonjonwi issued a joint editorial titled "Let's glorify this year as a year of proud victory through revolutionary offensive on all fronts of building a great prosperous powerful nation under the Party's leadership." Juche 92 (2003) was a year of heroic struggle in which the dignity and might of the DPRK were demonstrated to the world and a year of proud victory in which the sovereignty of the nation and socialism were defended despite the tense situation, the editorial says.

Noting that all the officers and men of the Korean People's Army and the people celebrated the 55th anniversary of the DPRK as a grand festival of victors by displaying unusual patriotic devotion in hearty response to the militant call of the Workers' Party of Korea and thus glorified the exploits performed by President Kim Il Sung in building the socialist power of Juche and fully demonstrated the invincible national power of Songun Korea, the editorial continues:

Last year the single-hearted unity with the headquarters of the revolution as a center and our own style state political system were consolidated steel-strong. The army and people's absolute trust in their leader was fully manifested and the might of the ranks devotedly defending the leader grew remarkably stronger with the 1st Session of the 11th Supreme People's Assembly as a momentum. The state political system with the National Defence Commission as a mainstay was strengthened to meet the requirements of the Songun era and its authority rose exceptionally high. This was an event of great significance.

Last year the country's self-supporting economic potential grew stronger and socialist cultural life was brought into fuller bloom. All the people waged a stubborn struggle in the revolutionary soldier spirit, thus opening up a prospect of a fresh surge in building an economic power. Our army and people fully demonstrated heroic stamina by waging a life and death struggle for independence and justice. Our army and people did not tolerate the U.S. brigandish pressure and high-handed practices even in the least but decisively frustrated them in a do-or-die spirit.

Steadfast was the stand and the will of the army and the people of the DPRK. They went their own way with high dignity according to their independent decision and principle no matter how the situation might change and what others might say. They clearly proved the truth of the anti-imperialist struggle that one is sure to emerge victorious if one tightly holds arms in hand and wages a death-defying struggle. This is a great pride of the army and the people of the DPRK. All the victories won by the WPK and the people of the DPRK last year are victories of the idea, line, faith and pluck of leader Kim Jong Il, tested and experienced statesman and great strategist, the editorial notes, and continues:

Juche 93 (2004) is a historic year which will witness unforgettable events in the glorious history of our motherland and revolution. Pointing out that a decade has passed since the army and people of the DPRK started a death-defying struggle to defend the destinies of the motherland, the nation and socialism with arms to accomplish Kim Il Sung's cause under the uplifted slogan of faith "The great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung will always be with us", the editorial stresses that the past decade was years in which a worldwide example was set in accomplishing the cause of perpetuating the memory of the leader and an eternal foundation was laid on which the DPRK can prosper and the Korean revolution can always triumph despite the grimmest trial.

It was quite just for the DPRK to have unswervingly followed the road of Juche opened up by the President under the Songun leadership of Kim Jong Il despite unspeakable difficulties and ordeals and this is the only way of guaranteeing the eternal prosperity of the country. This is a valuable review of the past decade. In this period the absolute authority, steadfastness of the leadership system and the ever-victorious political caliber of the headquarters of our revolution headed by Kim Jong Il have been displayed before the world.

Referring to the tasks to be fulfilled this year, the editorial says: We should give the fullest play to the inexhaustible strength that has been built up despite grim ordeals under the banner of modeling the whole Party, army and society on the Juche idea and pave a wide avenue for a fresh victory in building a great prosperous powerful nation and thus glorify this year as a year of weighty significance in accomplishing the revolutionary cause of the WPK. "Let us reach a high stage of the country's prosperity, true to the great Comrade Kim Il Sung's idea and cause!" This is the slogan we should put up in our advance this year.

The general task for the WPK, the army and the youth this year is to conduct a revolutionary offensive to attain a higher goal in building a great prosperous powerful nation on the three fronts of politics and ideology, anti-imperialism and military affairs and economy and science.
Now is the time for the whole party and the entire army and all the people to turn out with extraordinary determination and revolutionary enthusiasm and beat the drum to win victory in the Songun revolution on all fronts of building a great prosperous powerful nation.

A revolutionary offensive should be conducted on the front of politics and ideology.
This is an all-out offensive to increase the militancy of the Party organizations, effect a radical turn in the Party ideological work and mount a strong counterattack on the imperialists in the ideological and cultural fields. It is necessary to intensify the education in the Juche idea, strengthen the driving force of the revolution in every way and consolidate the politico-ideological position of socialism as solid as a rock this year marking the 30th anniversary of the proclamation of the programme for modeling the whole Party and the society on the Juche idea.

The Party members and all other working people should firmly defend the gains of socialism with transparent class awareness and in the spirit of anti-imperialist struggle. The Party ideological work should be conducted in such a way as to influence the minds of the people, thinking and will of the masses and their feelings just as it is done by the People's Army.

Greatest efforts should be directed to strengthening the front of anti-imperialism and military affairs.
It is an invariable stand of the army and the people of the DPRK to attach paramount importance to increasing the military capacity so as to defend the motherland and socialism and independently carve out the destiny of the nation.
The People's Army is the most reliable mainstay on the front of anti-imperialism and military affairs and a strong force defending the Juche-oriented revolution. All the officers and men of the Korean People's Army should intensify the combat and political training in the spirit of staunch anti-imperialist struggle and with a strong determination to wipe out the enemy. The enemies will suffer inescapable blows if they impose a war of any form upon us anytime.

The KPA should be built up to be the strongest revolutionary army that has achieved unity between officers and men, the army-people unity and the combination of military and political affairs on the highest level and the most dignified and stalwart elite force in its appearance as a regular army and strongest in military and technological might, the force that no formidable enemy can ever provoke.

It is the all-party, all-state and all-people work to consolidate the front of the anti-imperialism and military affairs. It is important to develop the national defence industry as the primary strategic task in carrying out the revolution and construction. And it is necessary to thoroughly establish the traits of giving importance to the military affairs throughout the society, conduct all work on the principle of giving priority to the military affairs, strengthen the militia and turn the whole country into an invulnerable fortress. It is imperative to fully realize the unity of the army and the people, the roots of our society and a firm guarantee for all victories, in thinking and fighting spirit.

It is necessary to make a leaping advance on the front of economy and science.
We must wage a vigorous drive this year under the slogan "Let's make rapid progress in the economy and science and technology and thus increase the national power in every way!"
The economy and science and technology in the Songun era should be so modern and viable as to materially and technologically guarantee the overall national power with the military muscle as the core and enable the people to live as well as others.

It is necessary to hold fast to and thoroughly implement the line of economic construction in the Songun era. In order to inject dynamism into the overall economy of the country it is necessary to channel main efforts into the development of the power, coal mining and metal industries and the railway transport.
The field of light industry should make an effective use of the existing production foundation and energetically push ahead with the technical modernization to boost the production of consumer goods and decisively improve their quality.
In order to significantly increase the agricultural production it is necessary to take it as a main link to bring about a radical turn in the seed improvement so as to effect a signal change in the potato farming and develop the two-crops-a-year farming on a large scale.

There is the need to spruce up well Pyongyang, the capital of the revolution, radically change the appearances of provinces, cities and county seats and achieve new progress in the land administration.
We must put all fields of science and technology in the country on the world's advanced level as early as possible with a persevering will and patriotic enthusiasm, true to the Party's line of attaching importance to science and technology. It is important to increase the role of the Cabinet, the economic headquarters, and improve the economic management.
To this end it is necessary to establish a proper work system guiding and administering the economy and science and technology in a uniform manner and closely combine science and technology with production.

It is a sure guarantee for achieving a victory on the three fronts of building a great prosperous powerful nation this year to conduct all work with the leadership exploits of our Party as guidelines.
We should achieve a shining victory and success in the on-going all-out offensive by glorifying all the leadership exploits of the Party this year, which marks the 40th anniversary of Kim Jong Il's start of work at the Central Committee of the WPK. The Party organizations and officials should work in the same style of work and struggle as displayed in the 1970s when the revolutionary enthusiasm surged high.

Our youth are the most dynamic combat ranks for the building of a great prosperous powerful nation and a glorious generation with a historic mission to carve out the future of the Songun cause, loyal to the headquarters of the revolution. They should firmly uphold the idea of the youth movement set out by the Party and the leader and their leadership exploits, perform the role of a death-defying corps defending the leader and a mighty shock brigade implementing the Party's line and thus demonstrate to the full the wisdom and spirit of the young Songun vanguard on the three fronts of building a great prosperous powerful nation.

The all-out offensive should be conducted by a Songun political mode on the fronts of politics and ideology, anti-imperialism and military affairs and economy and science. Last year witnessed great progress made in the movement for national reunification in the idea of "By our nation itself".

This year all Koreans in the north and the south and overseas should hold high the banner of our nation-first spirit to more vigorously push forward the movement for national reunification along the road indicated by the June 15 North-South Joint Declaration. "Let us pave a wide avenue for independent reunification through national cooperation under the banner of our nation-first spirit!" This is the slogan all Koreans in the north and the south and overseas should put up in this year's movement for national reunification.

They should fully demonstrate our nation-first spirit and promote the cause of national reunification on the principle of independence, peaceful reunification and great national unity as they are the nation who has glorified its brilliant history with the same blood in the same territory. They should fully realize national cooperation with the stand and will to place the nation above all and depend on its strength.

The U.S. is chiefly to blame for disturbing the national cooperation and wrecking peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. It is a daydream to think that it is possible to avert the danger of a war and achieve economic stability only when depending on the U.S., prompted by an illusion about it. The north and the south should take practical actions to cope with the nation's confrontation with the U.S. in order to defend the peace of the country and achieve its reunification.

The June 15 North-South Joint Declaration is a grand programme for national reunification reflecting the desire of all the Koreans. All Koreans, be they in the north and the south and overseas, should devote themselves to the struggle to uphold and implement the joint declaration. The great Songun politics is a truly patriotic one. All Koreans in the north and the south and overseas should unanimously support and defend the Songun politics aimed to protect the destiny of the nation.

Last year witnessed such tragic developments in the international arena as the world peace was wantonly violated by the imperialists' strong-arm policy and their moves for aggression. This reality proved that it is impossible to protect the sovereignty of the nation and world peace unless the U.S. "logic of strength" is countered with force.

The present situation on the Korean peninsula has reached a grave phase due to the Bush administration's extremely hostile policy toward the DPRK. Consistent is our principled stand to seek a negotiated peaceful solution to the nuclear issue between the DPRK and the U.S. But we will always react with the toughest policy to the U.S. hardline policy of totally denying and threatening the dignified idea and system of our style. This is a legitimate option for self-defence as it is aimed to defend the nation's sovereignty and right to existence and ensure peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in the region.

We will in the future, too, develop our relations with various countries of the world in the idea of independence, peace and friendship and make positive efforts to build a new peaceful and independent world.
Terming Juche 94 (2005) a glorious year which marks the 60th anniversary of the WPK and the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Korea, the joint editorial calls on all the servicepersons, people and youth to significantly greet the anniversaries with proud achievements in the building of a great prosperous powerful nation.

"Glorify This Year Greeting the 55th Anniversary of the Party Foundation as A Year of Proud Victory in the Frame of Great Chollima Upsurge"

Today, we greet the hopeful New Year Juche 89 (2000) as we review the chronology of Korean revolution that undergone rigorous storm of history.
It is great pride of our party and the Korean people that we are greeting the year 2000 with continuously holding afloat the banner of Socialism.
Determined to carry through a New Year's all-out march, all party members, soldiers and people are wishing Comrade Kim Jong Il the greatest honor and long live as they are firmly rallying around him. Last Year Juche 88 (1999) was a historic year in which a great turn was made in the building of a powerful nation.

Over the last couple of months, we have ridden out the unprecedented hills of trial. The "arduous march" and "forced march". Last year the Korean people made tireless efforts to turn a difficult march of years into a canter march.
The heroic epic of "arduous march" left an immortal great achievement which will be remembered forever in the long history of our socialist fatherland.
Last year the perfect unity between the leader and the people that was consolidated in a hard-fought struggle fully demonstrated its tremendous strength.
The will of the WPK and the people to hold in high esteem the great Kim Il Sung as the eternal leader and make revolution as taught by him became unshakable with his fifth death anniversary as a moment.

The noble ideological outlook of the people, who are determined to rely on Comrade Kim Jong Il as mainstay and ready to struggle for him wherever they are, were highly manifested.
Last year witnessed many heroes eternally faithful to the party and the leader. The great victory of marathon runner Chong Song Ok was a meaningful epoch making event of the 20th century, demonstrating all over the world the dignity and honor of the Korean nation who will fight it out against all adversities.

By energetically pushing ahead with the movement to model after the heroes of our era, we could enliven such national sentiments as """"""
It is great achievement outpacing tens of thousands tons of rice that we could produce large contingents of strongmen of ideology and faith.
Last year the Second Chollima Advance was made nationwide to lay a more solid foundation for the building of a powerful nation. Despite difficulties, all people rose as one and did many jobs in order to realize grand economic construction of the Party.
Under the torchlight of Songgang, we waged vigorous struggles to bring about a product-upsurge in various fields of the people's economy. The great forces were devoted to the agricultural development, thus meeting the demand of Juche-styled agricultural method.

We registered great achievements in magnificent nature-remaking projects such as land re-zoning in Kangwon Province and North Pyongan Province, and construction of Kwangmyongsong Salt Factory. Thanks to the self-sacrificing efforts of scientists and technicians, many scientific-and-technical problems were solved.
Last year the solid foundation for powerful nation was made and we grew strong enough to make a quicker advance in future.
The world-startling Second Chollima Advance fully demonstrated that our revolutionary spirit of building the socialist powerful state cannot be checked by any force.
Last year also witnessed a resounding victory in the political and military confrontation with the Imperialists.

In the '90s our country became the severest battlefield for fighting against Imperialists. Although the machinations of Imperialists aimed to crush and isolate our socialism have unprecedentedly intensified, it is not we but Imperialists that have fallen into an awful predicament. In dealing with Imperialists, we have stood face to face against their power policy and crushed their deceptive appeasement policy with our definite revolutionary principle.
The world-startling victory of ours underscored the need to discard even the slightest illusion about Imperialism and fight it out till a final victory is won.
Last year was glorified with the energetic guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Il, who stands in the forefront in the cause building the powerful nation.
In the pulsating reality, Comrade Kim Jong Il has always mapped out a plan and administered wise politics to inspire the people.

Thanks to the brilliant wisdom and painstaking labor of Comrade Kim Jong Il, many fine examples for others to follow have been produced nationwide, giving momentum to the building of the powerful nation. The great model of the leader has been spreading among the people like a wildfire.
The army-first politics is a revolutionary guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Il.
Comrade Kim Jong Il has spared no time safeguarding the fatherland, inspecting the military front on almost daily routine. At the same, he has also pushing ahead with socialist construction.
In the vanguard of the "year of turn," or "canter march," there has always been Korean People's Army. In the vanguard of the Korean People's Army, there has always been Comrade Kim Jong Il.
His army-first politics - putting the KPA at the first place as a pillar of revolution and arming the workers and farmers with revolutionary-soldier-spirits - shines as a powerful and perfect socialist political mode in our era.

The great achievements of Comrade Kim Jong Il, who opened the solemn era of powerful nation in the historical year of 1999, will go down to prosperity forever.
The New Year Juche 89 is a year of general advance to make a significant stride forward in the building of a powerful nation under the leadership of the great party.
Comrade Kim Jong Il taught us as follows:
"Our struggle to build a powerful nation is the most worthwhile and titanic one, which will brilliantly inherit and complete the cause of Juche socialism, and make our country more powerful and prosperous socialist state."

This year is meaningful one commemorating with the 55th anniversary of the party foundation of the Workers' Party of Korea. The 55th anniversary of founding of the WPK is a great festival glorifying forever the immortal revolutionary cause of the found of the Party.
All parties, army and people must strengthen the spirit of socialist Korea, turning out as one in order to overcome the difficulties this year that celebrates the 55th anniversary of the founding of the WPK.
The ongoing advance to significantly celebrate the 55th anniversary of the WPK is a struggle to take a giant leap forward in the building of a powerful nation under the guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Il.
It is a sacred struggle to demonstrate the invincible might of socialism of Korean style that has been defended in grim ordeals.
Our ideal and aim is to build a powerful nation and the banner of socialism of Juche is the banner of victory.
"Glorify This Year Greeting the 55th Anniversary of the Party Foundation as A Year of Proud Victory in the Flame of Great Chollima Upsurge"
We should step up the general march this year firmly maintaining the line of giving great importance to ideology, arms and science and technology. Ideology, arms and science and technology are the three major pillars for the building of a powerful nation. Steadfast ideology, powerful arms and upgraded science and technology represent a powerful socialist nation of Juche.
To attach great importance to ideology is the life and soul of the WPK and the mainstay of Korean-style socialism. Our Juche-typed revolutionaries should become ideologists who firmly hold their faith in death-defying manner.

Today's march is a struggle to safeguard and glorify the socialism with the power of revolutionary ideology thought by Comrade Kim Jong Il.
We should push through the Party construction, army construction and economic construction in the only manner taught by Comrade Kim Jong Il.
Everybody should hold as one's motto the Party's idea and intention, and become fighters and disciples committed to Comrade Kim Jong Il.
The most fundamental point regarding to the socialist ideology is the spirit of defending the headquarters of the revolution.
Comrade Kim Jong is ever-victorious leader as well as great guardian of the socialist cause. Our revolutionary fighters should devote their youth to the death-defying protection of the leader and should adorn their golden ages with the death-defying protection of the leader. Armed with spirits of revolutionary soldiers, we should become guns-and-bombs to protect the leader at the cost of our lives.

Our socialism is an invincible fortress safeguarded by the definite class stand and staunch anti-imperialists spirits.
We cannot compromise our socialist class fortress even a 0.001 mm, which has been protected through the decades long bloody battles.
The illusion for the imperialism is a poison for those who committed to revolution. We should consistently strengthen the class education of anti-imperialism in case for the imperialists may challenge us with high-handed approach or deceptive one. With always in our minds the bloody lesson of Sinchon Massacre, we should never make a concession to imperialists.
We should strongly wage battle to check the spread of imperialists' idea and culture to our country. We should be optimistic in time of adversity, filled with a belief of ultimate victory.

The idea of attaching great importance to military affairs should be thoroughly applied.
It is comrade Kim Jong Il's iron belief to accomplish the Korean revolution by arms, a revolution which has been developed by arms.
To attach great importance to arms is a strategic line that should always be held fast to as long as imperialism remains and the revolution goes on. It is the most important state affair to which top priority should be given by all units. Today, in the world, the most reasonable way to defend socialism is to attach importance to national defense.
Our People's Army is the invincible fortress of the Korean style-socialism and the main force for the construction of a powerful nation.
The gun which the People's Army takes hold of is permeated with its burning spirit of protecting the leader and with its strong class consciousness that shows little mercy to its enemy. Soldiers of the People's Army should defend their headquarters to the last like guard companies in the era of the anti-Japanese armed struggle. A revolutionary commanding system and military rules, which make soldiers absolutely obey the supreme commander, should be thoroughly applied in the whole sections of the army. We should strengthen our People's Army as the fruition of revolutionary comradeship which is filled with a virtue of unity of officers and soldiers and as the true revolutionary armed forces that love the people.
The target of our revolutionary armed forces has been unchanged up to the present. Officers and men of the KPA must be an iron fist, which will mercilessly break down the enemies of the working classes, enemies who plot to destroy our fatherland and social system. Officers and servicemen should surely protect the blue sky, green fields and the blue sea of our fatherland with their infinite love for the fatherland.
The KPA is the army of the three generals of Mt. Paekdu and the army which fight and win in a fighting manner of the anti-Japanese partisans. The indomitable fighting spirit that we will crush the enemy even though we die hundreds of billions of times, the matchless strong fortitude that they will survive and fight to the very end if only they have water and air, the tactics of protean elusiveness with which they always take initiative and defeat the enemies. These are the true characteristics of the way of fighting of our People's Army, which is endowed with the spirit of Mt. Paekdu. The anti-Japanese partisan-style training method should be applied in the whole army and combat-readiness should be enhanced. Nobody in the world can match our revolutionary armed forces, which have grown under the three generals' care. In case imperialistic aggressors dare pounce upon us, the KPA will blow up their stronghold at one sweep and will accomplish the historic cause -- the reunification of our fatherland -- through a war of justice.

Our people love peace, but we never beg it. All people should keep themselves in an alert and mobilized posture and accelerate production and construction with a rifle in one hand and a hammer or sickle in the other. Soldiers and people have to protect their fatherland and carry on socialist construction, unified as one.
Great efforts should be made to firmly hold the idea of attaching great importance to science.
It is the fixed stand of the WPK to construct socialism relying upon science. We can make great success in building socialism when a high-level revolutionary sense is backed up by science and technology.
We should create an atmosphere of attaching great importance to science all over the country.
Everybody has to have deep interest in the development of science and technology and to let scientists and technicians stand on the front line of society. All scientists and technicians should actively contribute to the development of science for our fatherland with their farseeing plans, desperate researches and pure conscience. We should put the Juche-based science and technology on the world's level in the shortest possible time and settle urgent scientific and technological problems in the building of a powerful nation. We should create our scientific and technological strength in a long-range view.
We should timely introduce new results of research and technological innovations into production and make administrative reform in science and technology.

Big efforts should be directed to socialist economic construction this year.
Our economy is still in a difficult situation. Our struggle this year is a continuation of canter march and a struggle to make a leap forward in the building of an economically powerful nation. We should make an all-out charge to adorn a great festival in October in the same spirit that was displayed in the "arduous march""
The revolutionary economic policy advanced by comrade Kim Jong Il serves as a militant banner for the building of a socialist economic power. The way we survive by ourselves in a siege of imperialism depends upon the Party's economic policy, and the key to raising the standard of people's living depends on the accomplishment of the Party's economic policy. We should support and carry out the Party's economic policy, following the spirit of the ten party members of Ragwon. We cannot rely on others, we have to boost our independent national economy step by step, which has been built with our blood and sweat, under the principle of self-reliance. It is important to thoroughly guarantee actual benefits in all sections of economic activities. Priority should be given to economic calculation. We should strengthen economization campaigns and improve the quality of products and buildings.

Electric industries and coal industries are the outposts of socialist construction. We should raise fully the present capacity of power generation, promote the construction of large-scale hydroelectric power plants and medium and small-sized power plants at the same time and decisively increase the production of coal. We should fully enhance the production potential of metal industries and improve railway transportation. We should bring about a new upsurge in the production of people's consumer goods, raising a flame of revolution in the light industry. In agricultural sectors, we should thoroughly carry out Juche-style farming, which integrates farmers' unified will and whose justness has been prove d. We should promote the seed revolution, a revolution in potato farming and double-cropping and raise livestock in large numbers. Fish breeding campaigns should be promoted on a mass scale. We should push ahead with land management including land re-zoning and forest planting and seeding programs.

We should powerfully accelerate construction in important projects, including the construction of Pyongyang-Nampo Superhighway and Kaechon-Lake Taeson Watercourse, following the example of the spirit in which we recovered from the ruins after the Korean War. We should strengthen our Party's might, and the leading role of the Party should be heightened in every way in order to successfully fulfill this year's task.
The WPK's guidance is the source of the invincibility of socialism of our style. If the party is strong and there are people who are faithful to the party's guidance, we will defeat any archenemies, and we will never be afraid of hundreds of ""

The Workers' Party of Korea is the heart of our society and is the general staff of the Korean revolution. We should protect the party's leading power in every way, which has been acquired and consolidated through our long revolutionary struggles. A fresh upswing should be brought about at all levels of the Party on the occasion of the 55th anniversary of the WPK. We should powerfully wage the movement to follow the example of heroes of the present time and the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement to make the whole society seethe with revolutionary enthusiasm. All officials and members of the party should highly support the party's guidance in a firm belief that the party is precisely the leader. The youth should fulfil its mission as a reserve fighting unit and a detached force in a fruitful struggle to realize the party's great idea of socialist construction.

We should intensify our struggle on a full-scale to establish Juche and apply nationality in our revolution and construction.
Our style socialism is the socialism that loves our country and nation and is applied with Juche and Korean nationality. We should live in our own way, holding the banner of the "Korean nation is No. 1" policy, no matter what others say. We must smash imperialists' "globalization" maneuvers and defend the Korean style political system, economic structure and way of life. We should strengthen our struggle to establish Juche in every field including education, public health, literature and art, p
We should start a struggle with our real ability both in name and reality this year.
Comrade Kim Jong Il is a great person rarely seen in history who is equipped with real ability, and our revolutionary soldiers are the vanguard to build a powerful nation that supports the leader with its real ability. Whole thing depends on our loyalty and real ability. We should create a whirlwind in the whole of our country to enhance all our political and practical levels with a revolutionary zeal for study. Every worker should make preparations to become an ardent man of deep consideration, a master-hand of creation and a valiant commander like Comrade Kim Jong Il who carries through his purpose by making a detailed plan and daringly performs his work. A greater sense of responsibility is required for the fulfillment of the Party's policy.

The spirit of Kanggy is a mighty fighting spirit for the improvement of real ability. We should carry through the Party's policy by enhancing our vigorous desire for work, our strong vitality and by creating the decent living condition of the Kanggy people. We should cover all country with revolutionary romanticism filled with songs and smiles.
A strong will and a stubborn fight are required of us in the revolution that is still in an arduous stat e. All functionaries should make rapid progress in the year 2000 by vigorously expediting our victorious march as is sung in the military song of the Merited Chorus Group.
Last year was a historic year in which our people made great progress in national reunification. In the reunification events of the fatherland such as '99 Grand Pro-Reunification Festival, Koreans in the north, south and oversees realized for the first time their solidarity and unity while the strong will of the Korean nation to reunification was also displayed. The mass movement of south Koreans for independence, democracy and reunification came to be strengthened more and more. In the long history of reunification events, it was shown that it was impossible to realize the independence and reunification of our fatherland by letting the imperialists as they are.

Reunification is the only way for the Korean nation to live and be restored. We should make the year 2000 - on which falls the 55th anniversary of our country's liberation - a year of a new historic turn in our struggle for national reunification.
Now the whole nation looks forward to a bright future of reunification in greatness of the Comrade Kim Jong Il. His dignity is absolute which strikes a fear into the anti-reunification elements. At the same time, it gives faith in victory to all the fellow countrymen. His virtue is so great that it can rally the whole nation irrespective of differences in ideology and ideal. All the nation should have confidence that the reunification depends entirely on Comrade Kim Jong Il.
The Korean nation's aspiration for reunification should be realized under the guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Il in the same way as the Koreans endeavored to realize the liberation of the country under the leadership of Comrade Kim Il Sung.

The democratization of south Korea is the task of our era that can not be put off. It is unthinkable that our national reunification is realized without democracy. We should not tolerate any anti-reunification, anti-national movements in south Korea, which relay on the outside forces.
The great unity of the entire nation is a prerequisite for the reunification of our country.
It is a patriotic person who aspires for the "Great National Unity,"
All the Koreans at home and abroad should be united under the unfurled banner of the "Five Point Program for Great National Unity" laid down by the great leader Kim Jong Il.
A master key to opening an epochal phase in national reunification is to firmly defend the three principles of national reunification, the ten-point program of the great unity of the whole nation and the proposal for founding a democratic confederal republic of Koryo, and struggle to put them into practice.

All our fellow countrymen should make an effort to carry through the three principles of national reunification. Our national reunification is a historic demand and the struggle for it is the greatest act of patriotism for our fatherland.
By beating all anti-reunification elements, all Koreans in the north, south and overseas will build a prosperous and powerful state in the near future. Due to the aggressive maneuvers by the imperialist forces, a tragic situation has been created so that the course of maintaining world peace and national sovereignty has been gravely obstructed. It is the unchangeable nature of the present imperialists that they unhesitatingly perpetrate the act of invading sovereign countries and undermine other countries from within.

All our fellow countrymen should not be deceived by the deceptive logics of the imperialists who are crying for """"
We can clearly learn from the reality that we can defend our national sovereignty and our revolutionary achievements only when we fight against them with a resolute anti-imperialist spirit and when a Juche-based stand is firmly maintained.
Our course of revolution is a just revolutionary one and our party is the guardian of justice. Our party will carry out our sacred international duty through its course of revolution and independence by upholding anti-imperialism.

We are looking forward to a bright future, standing on the peak of this century.
Comrade Kim Jong Il is on the frontline of the march to build a powerful state and the red banner brightened by the will of Comrade Kim Jong Il, which is powerfully flying high illumining our course to the future.
Final victory will be in our hands and the year 2000 will be the arena of our action. We will vigorously step forward along the million-ri road to win a glorious victory following the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong Il like our army and people who made a million-ri arduous march under the leadership of Comrade Kim Il Sung.
Let all of us vigorously fight to realize the ultimate victory of socialism and carry out the task of building a powerful state.
(Copyright 1999 The People's Korea. All rights reserved.)